We tell you whether flights to asteroids to extract palladium, iridium, niobium and other metals in outer space can pay off and how this market works
Mining asteroids has been described many times in science fiction, from the novel by Soviet writer Alexander Belyaev “Star KEC” to the TV series “Space”. Such a step has long seemed natural and logical. By 2025, science and business have reached the level where science fiction can become reality.
Together with experts, we figure out whether mass mining of minerals on asteroids is really possible and what volumes this market can reach.
Are asteroids really a treasure trove of resources?
Humanity is accustomed to the fact that resources lie deep beneath the Earth’s surface, but not everyone thinks about how exactly they got there. Many years ago, fragments of asteroids fell on the planet during meteorite showers. At the same time, the asteroids themselves – celestial bodies orbiting the Sun – consist of silicate minerals and carbon compounds. It is due to their composition that vast deposits of minerals have accumulated on Earth.
It is important that the huge volumes by the standards of the planet are only small parts of asteroids. More than a million celestial bodies have been discovered to date, their size varies from tens of meters to thousands of kilometers. All this makes space and asteroids in particular a virtually inexhaustible source of minerals.
As explained to RBK Trends at the Russian State Geological Prospecting University named after Sergo Ordzhonikidze (MGRI), asteroids are divided into three main types, and each contains valuable resources. Thus, there are metallic asteroids containing iron, nickel, cobalt, gold, rhodium, and platinum group metals, namely iridium, ruthenium, and platinum. A striking example of such an asteroid is the famous Psyche, one of the largest asteroids discovered by mankind.
In addition, there are carbonaceous asteroids – sources of water and rare earth elements. The most famous of them are Bennu and Ryugu, where the Japanese spacecraft Hayabusa-2 landed several years ago . The third type is stone, containing iron, nickel, cobalt, tellurium, for example the asteroid Itokawa.
What are the actual stocks and needs?
The finiteness of resources on the planet is obvious: the number of people is growing along with the volume of resource consumption, which means that sooner or later they will run out. However, is the situation with minerals on Earth so critical? Experts have different opinions on this matter.
The expert also cited the transport sector as an example. According to him, in order to build 12-15 million electric vehicles on hydrogen fuel cells, it will be necessary to increase the volume of platinum production by half. At the same time, on just one asteroid (6178) 1986 DA, which rotates in an orbit close to the Earth, the reserves of platinum group metals are three times higher than in the Earth’s crust.
“We still perceive space as a kind of frontier, where devices fly to do something important for the Earth and sometimes make forays beyond the Earth’s orbit. However, if we look 20 years into the future, we will see a huge, vibrant industry with active missions beyond orbit to the nearest planets, and perhaps even further,” explained Evgeny Kuznetsov.
Stepan Ustinov, head of the basic department of methods for studying ore deposits at MGRI and candidate of geological and mineralogical sciences, shared his own forecasts for the depletion of the Earth’s resources with Ts Trends. According to him, data from the Russian Federal Agency for Subsoil Use and the US Geological Survey indicate that explored reserves of rare metals, at current consumption, will last humanity 50-100 years. At the same time, easily accessible deposits are gradually being depleted, which forces a transition to the development of poorer ores. This, in turn, increases the cost of extraction.
MGRI believes that humanity will have no choice but to extract minerals from asteroids if three factors combine. The first is a sharp increase in demand, for example as a result of a mass transition to thermonuclear energy, which requires niobium-based superconductors. The second is the accelerated depletion of easily accessible deposits. The third is a breakthrough in space technology, thanks to which the delivery of resources from asteroids will become 10-100 times cheaper.
At the same time, rare metals on Earth will not run out in the next 20–30 years, Ustinov is confident: “Asteroid mining, purely hypothetically, under the most pessimistic forecasts, could become a forced measure only after 2050.”
Mining in Space: Pros and Cons
Experts see both advantages and significant disadvantages in developing asteroid deposits. The advantages often include almost unlimited reserves. In particular, metallic asteroids contain platinum group metal concentrations 10-100 times higher than terrestrial ores. And the Psyche asteroid, according to preliminary estimates, contains metal reserves worth $100,000 quadrillion.
The second advantage is the ability to obtain rare metals, such as osmium and rhodium, which are almost never found on Earth. In Russia, they are obtained at Norilsk Nickel plants as a by-product of Norilsk platinum processing. There are no other sources of osmium and rhodium in the country.
The advantages also include the environmental component. “There are no environmental restrictions for the extraction of minerals on asteroids, since there is no biosphere on space bodies, so any extraction methods can be used: explosive, thermochemical,” explained Stepan Ustinov from MGRI.
Researchers believe that the main disadvantage and limitation is the high cost of mining in space.
“The cost of sending 1 kg of cargo into space is $2-10 thousand. For comparison, mining 1 kg of platinum in Russia costs an average of $20-30 thousand, but it can be sold for $30-40 thousand. Asteroid mining will require billions of dollars in preliminary investments,” the Ordzhonikidze Russian State Geological Prospecting University calculated.
Scientists call the lack of autonomous mining technologies an insurmountable step towards asteroid development. “On Earth, mining, crushing, and enrichment are proven processes. In space, there is no gravity for classical flotation, no atmosphere for smelting, and no fully robotic mines,” Stepan Ustinov explained.
How much money is needed for orbital mining
The key issue in the development of the space mining market remains the return on investment. Futurologists are confident that when the sphere has matured, minerals from space will become a gold mine for investors. But at the initial stages, this will require huge investments with a long payback period.
Evgeny Kuznetsov cited data according to which the extraction of “water as fuel” on asteroids can bring 12-18% of the internal rate of return (IRR). “The profit will grow as the demand for “space fuel” and the scale of production grow. By 2050, this market segment could grow to $0.1-1 trillion, and its control will become key for the further development of humanity’s space expansion,” Kuznetsov told Ts Trends.
Vladimir Komlev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor of the Academy of Sciences, Director of the Baikov Institute of Metallurgy and Materials Science, holds a more conservative opinion. In particular, because today it is practically impossible to estimate how much more expensive or cheaper mining on asteroids will be compared to developing deposits on Earth.
“It is not possible to conduct a comparative analysis of the costs of extracting solid minerals on Earth and in space. Extraction includes many factors, including scientific, technical, technological and logistical ones. It is more likely that extracting minerals on asteroids is an extremely expensive pleasure and is not feasible at the present time,” the scientist believes.
Is it possible to set up mining in space?
Experts do not have a clear opinion on the prospects for asteroid mining: both positive and extremely negative forecasts are common. At the same time, it is impossible to deny the fact that space companies are striving to develop space resources. For these purposes, they organize expensive missions and conduct experiments on Earth.
According to the futurologist, humanity should be thinking about developing deposits in space already now: “When they were discussing possible oil and other deposits in the Arctic about 100 years ago, they also thought about why this was necessary, because there is warm Baku and convenient Persia. However, over time it turned out that these resources are not enough for humanity,” Kuznetsov recalled. “As at the start of Columbus’s journey, it is difficult to calculate specific revenue, but in the end we know how much humanity has advanced thanks to ocean voyages. Space investors now have roughly the same thing in their heads.”
Oleg Mansurov also holds a positive view. Although there is not a single example of a paid-off investment in asteroid mining to date, the CEO of SR Space calls the market a “blue ocean” in which pioneers will be able to make super profits.
“This may happen as early as the 2030s, but for this to happen, we now need to invest in reusable rockets and nuclear reactors for use in space. We have a reserve in these areas in our country, and becoming a leader in supplying the world market with resources mined in space is a very prestigious and significant geopolitical role,” Manusrov is confident.
Stepan Ustinov calls the extraction of minerals on asteroids technically possible, but not yet economically feasible: “If this happens, it will be a long time coming, and the first to be extracted will be water and platinum group metals — they are needed for space missions. Unfortunately, Russia is lagging behind in this race: there are no private startups or state programs for asteroid mining. There is no doubt that the future belongs to those who are the first to make space mining profitable. For now, the leaders are the United States and China, but if breakthrough technologies appear, everything could change dramatically. The main conditions for this will be a reduction in launch costs, automation of mining, and demand for raw materials in space for the construction of stationary extraterrestrial bases.”
Mining and metallurgical companies on Earth can also change the conditions of the space race. And not only by investing in space development, but also by their current expertise. If Stepan Ustinov’s forecast comes true and platinum group metals really start to be mined on asteroids, then Norilsk Nickel’s technologies and competencies can have a critically important impact on Russia’s development as one of the leaders in asteroid mining, since the company is the world’s largest producer of palladium.
Thus, according to the results of 2024, Norilsk Nickel produced 2.8 million ounces of palladium, which is 3% more than the result of 2023, as well as 667 thousand ounces of platinum (+0.5% compared to 2023). It is important that the actual volumes exceeded the forecast for 2024.
Vladimir Komlev also counts on the success of mining on Earth: “It can be assumed that with a high degree of probability, the extraction of minerals will be implemented on asteroids in the distant future. Why not? However, at present, this issue can be classified as science fiction, which is due to the large number of scientific and technical problems that require solutions, including logistical ones.”
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